Net overseas migration into Victoria, was running at about 75,000 people per year for 5 years pre Covid.
In 2021, this trend hit reverse with a net decline of 50,000 overseas migrants departing Victoria. That is a year-on-year switch of 125,000.
Keeping those numbers in mind, now consider this…
77% of overseas born households rent a home in their first year of moving to Victoria. So pre Covid, about 57,750 people per year were arriving in Victoria from overseas (excludes interstate) and looking for a property to rent. Even after 8 years of living in Victoria, 50% of this cohort continue to rent. This is well above the overall Melbourne rental market share which is 30% of the total population.
We also know many cultures migrating to Victoria prefer apartment living so you can safely assume a lot of the overseas rental demand is for apartments. It is clear why the apartment rental market tanked during Melbourne’s 262 days of lockdown. It also shows how strongly it will rebound once this migration returns.
Many of these insights are courtesy of a very informative Research presentation by Charter Keck Cramer’s Richard Temlett Director, Research & Strategy I enjoyed in September 2022
Richard also shared some interesting Apartment living demographics.
In Melbourne, 59% of 20-30 yr old’s live in an apartment. This is forecast to rise sharply to 68% by 2026.
Both the overseas migration and renter demographics reinforce the importance of Melbourne’s overseas education market and particularly face to face learning.
Fortunately overseas net migration is forecast to return to around 75,000 people per year for the next 5 years ramping up in 2023 which will be a game changer for the apartment rental market and will also bolster the sale market.
